Oolite Bulletins

Rxke wrote:

The best outcome the UK can hope for now is speedy entry into the European Economic Area - where we have to pay the EU membership fees, accept free movement of EU citizens, and accept all EU regulations without getting to vote on what those regulations say.

Wow, creek, paddle... There's no way to get anything good out of this, no? Not for the remain or the exit people...

Or am I missing something? Is the UK a net exporter of something that will make you rich maybe? How much oil do you have? Is the Commonwealth still a significant 'thing?' (I'm really clueless about this)

Well, we get control back of our agriculture, fishing and other policies; we can negotiate our own trade deals with non-EU countries without them being held hostage by 27 other states; we won't get sucked into the Euro disaster area and we'll be able to vote out the people who make the rules when they screw up. Apart from that, nothing much good at all.

As for the Commonwealth, Canada, Australia and New Zealand might be up for one of those free trade deals, and Africa has been screwed over by the EU's (and others) protectionist trade policies for decades, so a free trade policy there could be huge, for them and for us.

Disembodied wrote:

it's in the interest of the EU to demonstrate that leaving the EU results in economic pain and hardship

Why would that be in their interests? Unless, say, the EU was really awful and they needed to resort to threats to keep you in?

kanthoney wrote:

Disembodied wrote:

it's in the interest of the EU to demonstrate that leaving the EU results in economic pain and hardship

Why would that be in their interests? Unless, say, the EU was really awful and they needed to resort to threats to keep you in?

They (the Eurocrats rather than the national leaders) are running scared that their dream of a federal Europe could unravel. If the UK survives leaving relatively unscathed, and especially so if we get a good deal from Europe, other European countries could be tempted to follow suit, and that would be the end for federalism, the Euro and Schengen.

kanthoney wrote:

Disembodied wrote:

it's in the interest of the EU to demonstrate that leaving the EU results in economic pain and hardship

Why would that be in their interests? Unless, say, the EU was really awful and they needed to resort to threats to keep you in?

There are a number of political parties across Europe who campaign for their countries' withdrawal from the EU. Most are from the far Right. Other political parties, facing a rising tide of extremist ideology which seeks to peddle simple solutions to complex problems, have an active interest in showing that withdrawal from the EU causes financial pain. So far, they haven't had to do much on that front.

kanthoney wrote:

we get control back of our agriculture, fishing and other policies

Except where we have to conform to EU rules, in order to be able to trade with the EU (like the USA does, for example: if the USA wants to sell agricultural produce to the EU, it has to conform to EU regulations, and vice-versa).

kanthoney wrote:

we can negotiate our own trade deals with non-EU countries without them being held hostage by 27 other states

Or being supported by 27 other states.

kanthoney wrote:

we won't get sucked into the Euro disaster area

Which we had already successfully negotiated our way out of, some time ago.

kanthoney wrote:

we'll be able to vote out the people who make the rules when they screw up

Good old British democracy!

kanthoney wrote:

As for the Commonwealth, Canada, Australia and New Zealand might be up for one of those free trade deals,

Then again, they might not. And negotiating from a position of panicky desperation is unlikely to secure us the best deals going.

kanthoney wrote:

and Africa has been screwed over by the EU's (and others) protectionist trade policies for decades, so a free trade policy there could be huge, for them and for us.

Yes - very true. Although our own imperial trade policies were screwing them over long before the EU was born, so they may not be in the mood to do us too many favours. And quite what we sell them, I'm not sure.

The EU is far from perfect. There are rational arguments for being outside the EU. What I find unforgivable, though, is that we find ourselves in this position without a clue of what we're going to do. Not one of the Brexiteers has even a ghost of a plan: they're either just fantasists, looking out the window and wondering where the rain of milk and honey has got to, or they're running around flapping "Keep Calm" tea-towels and pretending that nothing will change (in which case, what was the point?).

The plot thickens - BoJo has ruled himself out of the contest for PM.

... but Gove has entered. Exciting, isn't it?

<grins> Transfixed, I am!

I kind of expect Lord Blackadder jump out from behind a curtain exclaiming "Baldric, I have a cunning plan!"

Disembodied wrote:

The EU is far from perfect. There are rational arguments for being outside the EU. What I find unforgivable, though, is that we find ourselves in this position without a clue of what we're going to do. Not one of the Brexiteers has even a ghost of a plan: they're either just fantasists, looking out the window and wondering where the rain of milk and honey has got to, or they're running around flapping "Keep Calm" tea-towels and pretending that nothing will change (in which case, what was the point?).

That sums it up very well, as far I can judge from the outside.

Starting and supporting a referendum with no plan if it's successful... leaders not having the balls to stand to the consequences... sorry, but that's probably the dumbest political tragicomedy I've ever seen in a first world country - including my own, and that says a lot.

Disembodied wrote:

kanthoney wrote:

we get control back of our agriculture, fishing and other policies

Except where we have to conform to EU rules, in order to be able to trade with the EU (like the USA does, for example: if the USA wants to sell agricultural produce to the EU, it has to conform to EU regulations, and vice-versa).

Yes, the goods sold across the Single Market are harmonised, so that the same standards apply throughout. That's good, because it means consumers know what they're getting and it means suppliers only have to produce goods to one set of standards, reducing costs. Unfortunately, the EU goes one step further and regulates how the goods are produced, which is where the CAP comes in.

So, yes, we have to accept the Single Market rules if we want to trade with the EU (incidentally, there's a good article here discussing how much say we'd have in the rules - it's a lot more than you think). But there's no reason at all why we should have to run our farms according to some bureaucrat from Brussels.

Disembodied wrote:

kanthoney wrote:

we can negotiate our own trade deals with non-EU countries without them being held hostage by 27 other states

Or being supported by 27 other states.

The problem with the way the EU negotiates trade deals is that it needs all member states to agree, so it only takes one of them to stall the whole process. There's no point in having 27 other states for added clout if it means the deal is stalled. It's not as if trade deals are that adversarial anyway - they're mutually beneficial.

Disembodied wrote:

kanthoney wrote:

we won't get sucked into the Euro disaster area

Which we had already successfully negotiated our way out of, some time ago.

That's why I said "won't get sucked into" and not "we'll be able to leave".

Disembodied wrote:

kanthoney wrote:

we'll be able to vote out the people who make the rules when they screw up

Good old British democracy!

Imagine if we couldn't vote them out?

Disembodied wrote:

kanthoney wrote:

As for the Commonwealth, Canada, Australia and New Zealand might be up for one of those free trade deals,

Then again, they might not. And negotiating from a position of panicky desperation is unlikely to secure us the best deals going.

New Zealand have just offered us the use of their trade negotiators (anyone from New Zealand here? Thanks very much for that!) It doesn't sound like they're going to be awkward.

Here's a list of countries that have been trying to get a trade deal with Europe for years only for it to stall, and are keen to have one with us.

Disembodied wrote:

kanthoney wrote:

and Africa has been screwed over by the EU's (and others) protectionist trade policies for decades, so a free trade policy there could be huge, for them and for us.

Yes - very true. Although our own imperial trade policies were screwing them over long before the EU was born, so they may not be in the mood to do us too many favours. And quite what we sell them, I'm not sure.

Trade deals tend to be mutually beneficial. That's the point of doing them.

Disembodied wrote:

The EU is far from perfect. There are rational arguments for being outside the EU. What I find unforgivable, though, is that we find ourselves in this position without a clue of what we're going to do. Not one of the Brexiteers has even a ghost of a plan: they're either just fantasists, looking out the window and wondering where the rain of milk and honey has got to, or they're running around flapping "Keep Calm" tea-towels and pretending that nothing will change (in which case, what was the point?).

You want a plan? Here's a plan.

kanthoney wrote:

Disembodied wrote:

kanthoney wrote:

As for the Commonwealth, Canada, Australia and New Zealand might be up for one of those free trade deals,

Then again, they might not. And negotiating from a position of panicky desperation is unlikely to secure us the best deals going.

New Zealand have just offered us the use of their trade negotiators (anyone from New Zealand here? Thanks very much for that!) It doesn't sound like they're going to be awkward.

Run. Run for your lives. Whatever you think you know from the EU experience, you haven't seen anything yet. You might think it's just a quirky proto-bird creature with no wings, but when it comes to negotiating trade treaties, it's cthulhu on steroids. Gov.NZ will fuck you over then demand you say thank you.

Gov.NZ wanted to introduce agricultural diseases to Australia, because our disease-free status gave our farmers an "unfair" market advantage. Gov.NZ demanded the Bureau of Meteorology charge for weather reports, because giving them away free prevented the NZ bureau from entering "the market" and undercutting them. There is nothing more ruthless than a Kiwi come to talk about free trade.

So the strategy should be "give us what we want or we unleash the Kiwis"?

In other news, the valleys are alive with song - the Welsh are rejoicing! Bravo!

Cody wrote:

In other news, the valleys are alive with song - the Welsh are rejoicing! Bravo!

Indeed - congratulations to the land of my great-great-great-grandfathers! Take that, remote Brussels elite!

Wildeblood wrote:

kanthoney wrote:

Disembodied wrote:

Then again, they might not. And negotiating from a position of panicky desperation is unlikely to secure us the best deals going.

New Zealand have just offered us the use of their trade negotiators (anyone from New Zealand here? Thanks very much for that!) It doesn't sound like they're going to be awkward.

Run. Run for your lives. Whatever you think you know from the EU experience, you haven't seen anything yet. You might think it's just a quirky proto-bird creature with no wings, but when it comes to negotiating trade treaties, it's cthulhu on steroids. Gov.NZ will fuck you over then demand you say thank you.

Wildeblood wrote:

Gov.NZ wanted to introduce agricultural diseases to Australia, because our disease-free status gave our farmers an "unfair" market advantage.

Actually, it was because Australia was using agricultural disease as an excuse for not allowing NZ apple imports, despite the fact that there was no scientific evidence that the disease the Australians were claiming was a problem was actually transmissable from imported apples in the first place.

Anyway, if you promise to take back the brush-tailed possums we'll say no more about it

Wildeblood wrote:

There is nothing more ruthless than a Kiwi come to talk about free trade.

Thank you!

Disembodied wrote:

... the land of my great-great-great-grandfathers!

Crikey! I don't even know who my father's father was, let alone where he came from!